(NEW YORK) — The Federal Reserve handed down a large interest rate cut this week, dialing back the central bank’s fight against inflation and signaling welcome relief for borrowers.
It remains to be seen, however, whether the Fed will continue to lower rates and further ease the burden for people and companies saddled with loans.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a policymaking body at the Fed, on Wednesday forecast further interest rate cuts.
By the end of 2024, interest rates will fall nearly another half of a percentage point from their current level of between 4.75% and 5%, according to FOMC projections. Interest rates will drop another percentage point over the course of 2025, the projections further indicated.
Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the projections reflect expectations that the economy will sustain the same pair of trends that prompted the rate cut in the first place: falling inflation and rising unemployment.
“These projections, however, are not a committee plan or decision,” Powell said. “As the economy evolves, monetary policy will adjust.”
Experts who spoke to ABC News predicted that the Fed is all but certain to deliver at least one more interest rate cut this year, hewing fairly closely to its projection for the coming months. However, the experts voiced caution about the forecast for rate cuts next year, saying the path would depend on economic performance, which is difficult to anticipate.
“These long-term interest rates projections are almost never correct,” Derek Horstmeyer, a finance professor at George Mason University’s Costello College of Business, told ABC News. “There is a lot of uncertainty.”
The Fed is guided by a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment. In theory, low interest rates help stimulate economic activity and boost employment, while high interest rates slow economic performance and ease inflation.
Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, though it remains slightly higher than the Fed’s target of 2%. The FOMC expects the inflation rate to fall to 2.1% next year and to reach the central bank’s target of 2% by 2026, projections show.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has ticked up this year. The FOMC expects that rate to also rise gradually next year, then hold steady over the following two years.
“If we stay on track with these projections, that’ll be great news,” Horstmeyer said. “It will be a signal that we pulled off a soft landing.”
The economy, however, may not perform as anticipated. A snag in the cooldown of inflation, or even an outright reversal, could prompt the Fed to pause its rate projected rate cuts, experts said. On the other hand, a greater-than-expected rise in unemployment or a possible recession could cause the Fed to cut rates faster than initially planned.
“If inflation has any surprise to the upside, it wouldn’t take much to see one of those projected cuts disappear,” William Luther, a professor of economics at Florida Atlantic University, told ABC News, referring to the two quarter-point rate cuts expected over the remainder of 2024.
A spike in unemployment, meanwhile, could prompt the Fed to revisit its plans for interest rates going forward, Luther added.
“If labor markets in particular were to show signs of deterioration over the next two months, we could see considerable revisions to the path of the federal funds rate,” Luther said.
On Wednesday, Powell acknowledged the flexibility of the Fed’s plans for rate cuts.
“We can go quicker if that is appropriate. We can go slower if that’s appropriate. We can pause if that’s appropriate,” Powell said. “This process evolves over time.”
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